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For businesses in the Buffalo Niagara region, Canada is not a distant international market, but a major part of our regional economy. Companies on both sides of the border share customers, suppliers, workers, transportation networks and supply chains, which means decisions made in Washington and Ottawa can quickly affect the cost of doing business here in Western New York. 

However, the future of the United States Mexico Canada Agreement, or USMCA, remains unsettled, new tariffs are changing the economics of cross border commerce, and employers are once again having to consider how government policy could affect sourcing, investment and long-term planning. 

These issues were the focus of USMCA and Beyond, a recent presentation for BNP members that looked at where the trade relationship stands today, what recent federal actions could mean for employers and why Buffalo Niagara has so much at stake in the decisions still to come. 

USMCA remains in place, but questions remain 

North American trade has been shaped by several major agreements over the past few decades, beginning with the Canada U.S. Free Trade Agreement in 1989 and followed by NAFTA in 1994. USMCA replaced NAFTA in 2020, preserving much of the integrated trading system businesses had already built around while updating the agreement in areas including digital trade, labor, agriculture, customs and automotive manufacturing. 

One of the most important changes under USMCA was the creation of a formal review process. The United States, Canada and Mexico held the agreement's first joint review on July 1, 2026, but the United States did not agree to renew USMCA in its current form. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the administration would continue discussions with Canada and Mexico over its concerns with the agreement and U.S. trade deficits. 

For businesses, the most important point is that USMCA did not expire and remains in effect, but the lack of a new 16-year extension means there is now less certainty about the agreement's long-term future. The three countries will continue reviewing the agreement, and those ongoing negotiations may become another factor for companies making decisions about facilities, suppliers, equipment purchases or contracts that extend years into the future. 

North American trade timeline 

Tariffs are creating another challenge 

The USMCA review is only one part of the current trade picture. This summer, the United States used Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 to impose additional 50 percent duties on certain Canadian products, including goods in sectors such as motor vehicles, dairy and alcoholic beverages. 

These actions are separate from the broader USMCA process, which is important for businesses trying to understand how products moving across the border may be treated. In some cases, a product may qualify for preferential treatment under USMCA while still being affected by another trade action, adding another layer of complexity for companies that depend on cross border supply chains. 

The situation has continued to change throughout September as the administration has adjusted the products covered by some of the additional duties. Certain Canadian products that had been subject to the 50 percent tariff are instead set to be blocked from entering the United States beginning September 29, 2026. 

For employers, those changes can extend well beyond the company directly importing a product. A tariff or import restriction can affect manufacturers, suppliers, transportation companies, distributors and retailers throughout the supply chain, with added costs or delays often carrying over to businesses that are not directly involved in the original transaction. 

A change affecting one product at the border can create added costs and uncertainty for businesses throughout the region.  

Why this matters here 

Few regions are more closely connected to Canada than Buffalo Niagara, where the border is part of everyday economic activity rather than a distant trade issue. The broader binational region includes more than eight million people and generates more than $400 billion in economic activity, with strong connections across manufacturing, automotive supply chains, energy, logistics, professional services, agriculture, tourism and many other industries. 

For local employers, changes in trade policy can affect the cost of materials, access to customers, transportation decisions and plans for future investment. That is why the Buffalo Niagara Partnership continues to make cross border economic policy an important part of its government affairs work and why developments in the U.S.-Canada relationship remain a major issue for BNP members. 

What comes next 

There is unlikely to be a single point when all of the uncertainty surrounding North American trade is resolved. USMCA remains in effect, but additional reviews and negotiations will continue, while separate tariff actions and bilateral discussions will also shape the relationship between the United States and Canada in the months and years ahead. 

The BNP will continue tracking those developments, keeping members informed and working with policymakers and cross border partners to make sure the concerns of Buffalo Niagara employers are part of the conversation. A consistent priority in that work will be advocating for the stability and predictability businesses need when they are making long term decisions about investment, hiring and supply chains. 

On December 3, The BNP will bring business and policy leaders from both sides of the border together for CanAm Connect, a forum focused on cross border commerce, tariffs, supply chains and the future of the U.S.-Canada relationship. 

Join us at Can-Am Connect